Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
